Fantasy Football

2017 Fantasy Football Week 11 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

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Another week down in the NFL season. Another week where I struggle to come up with three sentences to prelude my brief recap of the previous week’s action. There, I did it! Here were some intriguing defensive happenings for this eccentric author:

  • The Seattle Seahawks looked great against Arizona last Thursday, but it’s not all positive news. Richard Sherman is out for the season with a torn Achilles and that’s just a real bummer for this defense. They won’t completely fall apart – they are a well-coached unit. However, I am curious as to how they will patch up a key piece on the outside in the next couple of games. Be careful using them against the Falcons this Monday.
  • There wasn’t a more embarrassing performance last weekend than the one displayed by the Buffalo Bills. The Saints are a great team, but the Bills made them look like the ’72 Dolphins out there. Things don’t get easier for them this week as they will face a team that I am fond of this week (see ‘Notables’ section).
  • There’s not much left to say about the Jacksonville Jaguars that hasn’t already been said – they are ridiculously talented and opportunistic. I wanted to take this chance to express a mini-rant about a play that could have helped their fantasy output even more last week. Their SPECIAL TEAMS executed a fake punt to perfection for a touchdown last week, yet most platforms will call that an OFFENSIVE score. I say if the special teams is on the field and we are calling it a ‘defense plus special teams unit’, they ought to include that in the scoring. Someone show me the exact rule that says it’s not a special teams play until the ball hits someone’s dang foot. RANT OVER!

God bless the souls that actually take the time to read the introductions. Goodness gracious. Let’s get to the chart and junk!

2017 Fantasy Football Week 11 Defenses: Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.


Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

  • Own%: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues. This gives me an idea of which fantasy football defenses might be available in differently sized leagues. This doesn’t factor into the standings.
  • Location: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, I will give a five-point advantage to all home teams.
  • Wind: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. I have added another five-point bonus to both teams playing in such a windy condition.
  • Vegas: Using Vegas odds, I will look at the spread and over/under to generate the game score the bettors go against. This game score depicts what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.
  • oSAC%: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but the quarterbacks they have don’t show the ability to avoid the sack and that shows in this statistic.
  • oINT%: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. I didn’t use turnover percentage because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.
  • FPPG: I used ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.
  • DVOA: The defenses will be ranked by how well they have performed this year by DVOA efficiency ratings.

Defenses on Bye Week: 49ers, Colts, Jets, Panthers

Stream-O-Matic Chart

RkTeam DefenseOwn%OppLocWindVegasoSAC%oINT%FPPGDVOAOverall
1Jaguars96.8CLE052719283231142.0
2Ravens66.3GB052226143030127.0
3Lions86.8CHI0523.525202922124.5
4Steelers81.2TEN502616212629123.0
5Broncos71.2CIN5023.5242214.521110.0
6Saints46.9WAS5020.51882828107.5
7Seahawks96.6ATL50198192726104.0
8Chargers8.9BUF50252832119101.0
9Bears69.6DET5510237242397.0
10Bengals37.5DEN0013222716.51795.5
11Cardinals47.1HOU0016272671692.0
12Texans68.7ARI50111716231890.0
13Packers15.6BAL5515112411.51586.5
14Eagles71.9DAL0017125252584.0
15Rams84.9MIN00929313283.0
16Vikings80.3LAR50146619.52474.5
17Chiefs60.9NYG0028141114.5774.5
18Cowboys19.5PHI5052110221174.0
19Browns1.1JAX55671511.51261.5
20Falcons18.5SEA008151216.5960.5
21Dolphins14.2TB5020.510184259.5
22Buccaneers7.1MIA00129239.5558.5
23Bills33.1LAC00731319.51355.5
24Titans23.0PIT0044259.51052.5
25Patriots56.3OAK00185176349.0
26Panthers86.7BYE----------182745.0
27Redskins14.0NO00214132040.0
28Giants29.2KC5012022434.0
29Raiders7.4NE5031311124.0
30Jets11.4BYE----------81422.0
31Colts1.1BYE----------5813.0
3249ers8.0BYE----------369.0

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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Stream-O-Matic says Lions and Bears will fight tooth and nail to score points this week. I don’t mind it, as both defenses have proven their worth this season. I would be quick to play the Lions as a top five option, but not so much regarding the Bears. If you are in a deeper league or playing DFS tournaments, I’m fine with rolling the dice on Chicago. However, the Lions offense isn’t as friendly to opposing defenses as some of the other streaming options readily on waivers.

What does the author think? Well, my money is on the Broncos and Bengals scoring the least combined points of any combo facing each other this week. Brock Star versus Red Rifle spells trouble. I’m very comfortable streaming either defense in this contest. Big bounce back week for Denver’s defense lies ahead…

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

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There’s really only one place to go for the high-flying fiesta for Week 11. It’s the only game with an over/under in the 50’s and DVOA has both of the defenses in the bottom five. The Patriots and Raiders will be chunking points up back and forth without much resistance in my eyes.

Not only do both of these defenses suck, but DVOA also favors the offenses just as much. Both squads rank in the top five in total offense and have very balanced attacks. The Patriots are just unbelievable on offense relative to the rest of the league. The Raiders hold their own and might have lower numbers due to Derek Carr’s back injury early on. No matter the case, both offenses are clicking and both defenses are allowing opposing offenses to click.

Oh, right, please don’t play either of these defenses this week unless you are playing for the first pick in the 2018 fantasy draft.

Shoulder Shrugger of the Century of the Week

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I have no idea what to think about this Rams and Vikings contest other than it being must-watch TV in Week 11. Yes, this game figures to be amazing – who would have thought that before the season started?

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These two teams are very similar in style. They are well-rounded teams with great play on both sides of the ball. The defenses are very solid and rate well by Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders among others. The offenses are not thought of as ‘high-powered’ but they can put up 30 on you in a heartbeat. The quarterbacks don’t get the respect they deserve despite great seasons to the halfway point.

In regards to the defenses, shrug your shoulders, mate, because who the hell knows? I’m not rushing to stream either of these defenses depending on who is available on your waiver wire.

Notables

New Orleans, DST6 (46.9%)

So, the Saints are still less than 50% owned, proving the theory that stigmas can either overhype or stink up a fantasy name for multiple seasons without reason. Face it, fantasy folk, this Saints defense is more legit than not.

In this case, people will once again doubt them since they are playing a decent Washington offense in the notoriously high-flying Superdome. I say phooey, especially when you break down the matchup. The Redskins are going to be without (Fat) Rob Kelley, forcing them to trudge along to 3.2 YPC with Samaje Perine on early downs. If the Saints can get ahead early like last week against Buffalo, I would expect Washington to abandon the run game and pass for three quarters of this game.

The Redskins allow the 24th most points to opposing fantasy defenses. Are you going to doubt the Saints again or take a small leap of faith? It’s not even a leap at this point – just take a step in the right direction towards starting them.

Los Angeles Chargers, DST8 (8.9%)

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A great defensive streaming option that I believe will go unnoticed is this one. You’ve got an above average defense attracting an offense coming off a streak of poor performances – slam dunk! The real question – why is this team defense going unnoticed? Furthermore, is there something the chart and myself are missing in regards to starting this unit?

When you compare the statistics of the Chargers to the rest of the league, you notice something interesting. They are 13th in ESPN fantasy scoring, but they only have one touchdown and are about average in turnovers. Their points are largely coming from sacks and their ability to hold defenses to less yardage and points. That’s more impressive to me than a team like the one I will mention next (TEASE!) in most aspects.

When you throw in the fact that Buffalo allows the most sacks per passing play on the slate this weekend, it makes things even juicier for that stout front seven for L.A. I’m streaming the Chargers wherever I need to and am rather confident in them as a top 10 play for Week 11.

Kansas City Chiefs, DST17 (60.9%)

I know I usually use the notables section for low-owned defenses, but I found the ranking for the Chiefs defense to be very curious. Considering that they are a double digit favorite, what gives here?

Unfortunately, this isn’t your older brother’s Kansas City defense. They’ve been subpar this year in many ways with the absence of Eric Berry weighing heavily. They rank about average in fantasy scoring, but a lot of that has been from fluky special teams plays. DVOA has them ranked 26th in the league. And, by the way, KC’s scored 5 or worse in ESPN scoring in three of their last four games.

Now, they travel to East Rutherford to take on a flailing Giants team. As a Giants fan, it’s been a frustrating season for sure, but it hasn’t been just interceptions and sacks galore. The struggle has come in the form of sustaining drives and play-calling by the coaches. I’m not saying that the Giants are going to light up the scoreboard, but think about it from a fantasy perspective on their offense – it’s not like anyone is rushing to bench Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram this week.



I have the Giants scoring in the 20’s and still losing by double digits. The Chiefs won’t be able to induce turnovers and you will be relying on a big special teams play to make your day. I’m not comfortable streaming defenses like that and I believe the chart is telling the truth.


Check out the rest of our 2017 Fantasy Football content from our outstanding team of writers.

About Tyler Thompson

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